Although China's textile and apparel exports in the first half of the year faced many pressures such as drastic changes in the international political and economic situation, the Ukrainian crisis, repeated epidemics, and high inflation in developed economies, they still achieved good results with year-on-year growth in export volume with strong resilience. The relevant person in charge of the Information Department of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles predicts that in the third quarter, China's textile and apparel exports will maintain a moderate growth, and the overall export is expected to achieve a small increase in the second half of the year.
Strong demand drives export growth
Customs statistics show that in the first half of the year, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US$156.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. Among them, textile exports were 76.32 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year; apparel exports were 80.17 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12%. "In the first half of the year, strong demand in foreign markets was the main factor driving the growth of textile and apparel exports. For example, since the beginning of this year, high employment rates and fiscal stimulus policies have kept American consumers in strong demand for finished apparel. In the first half of the year, China's demand for American knitted and woven apparel The export volume increased by 21%." said the person in charge.
Due to the soaring global energy and commodity prices, China's textile and apparel export prices have an obvious upward trend. In the first half of the year, China's export prices of knitted garments to the United States and the European Union increased by 13% and 27% respectively. In addition, the growing demand for end consumer goods in the European and American markets has further driven the growth of intermediate goods exports. Data show that in the first half of the year, China's yarn and fabric exports increased by 5.9% and 7.4% respectively, and the average export price increased by 14.7% and 12% respectively.
In terms of products, clothing has made a more prominent contribution to the growth of the overall export value of the industry, and the export volume and price of fabrics and knitted clothing have increased. In the first half of the year, the export value of major commodity yarns, fabrics, knitted garments and home textile products increased by 21.4%, 20.2%, 20.5% and 1.4% year-on-year respectively, contributing 1, 4.4, 8.5 and 0.1 percentage points to the growth of the overall export value. percent pull.
Except for Japan, among the top four export markets of China's textile and apparel, the export value of textile and apparel to ASEAN, the United States and the European Union has achieved double-digit growth, of which ASEAN has surpassed the United States and jumped to the largest market for China's textile and apparel exports. In addition, since the implementation of RCEP for half a year, China's textile and apparel exports to most member countries have grown rapidly. From January to June, China exported a total of 45.57 billion US dollars of textile and apparel to the 14 member countries of the agreement, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, an increase that exceeded the average growth rate of global textile and apparel exports. Among them, China's exports of textiles and clothing to ASEAN, South Korea and Australia increased by 23.4%, 2.5% and 17.4% respectively. The share of RCEP member countries in China's textile and apparel exports also rose from 27.6% to 29.1%.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
In the second half of the year, what is the situation of China's textile and apparel exports? In this regard, the person in charge of the above-mentioned textile chamber of commerce believes that although China's textile and garment exports are under a lot of pressure, there are also development opportunities.
The increase in the possibility of shrinking external demand will have an impact on China's textile and apparel exports. The US consumer confidence index fell to 51.1 in July, far lower than the 80.8 in the same period last year; the euro zone consumer confidence index fell further in June, all of which indicate that the consumption level in the US and Europe in the second half of the year will be lower than that in the first half of the year. The unoptimistic economic prospects of the United States and Europe have dragged the global economy into the expected downward range. The World Bank estimated in the "Global Economic Outlook" released in June that the global economic growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will be 2.9% and 3.0% respectively, which is higher than that in January this year. Forecasts were revised down by 1.2 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth for the third time this year, lowering its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.2%. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for world economic growth in 2022 to 3.0% in June.
With the "normalization" of the epidemic, the main consumer markets of textiles and clothing such as the United States and Europe have restarted order decentralization due to supply chain security and cost considerations, which will have an impact on the export orders of Chinese textile and clothing enterprises. The 2022 Industry Benchmark Report released by the American Fashion Industry Association shows that nearly 40% of the US companies surveyed plan to adopt a diversification strategy in the next two years through a survey of US clothing retailers, importers and brands, from more countries and region to source or partner with more suppliers. That's up from 17 percent in 2021. India, members of the Central American Free Trade Agreement and Bangladesh have become the countries most interested in U.S. apparel companies to promote their procurement diversification strategy. More than half of the surveyed companies said they will increase their purchases from the above three regions in the next two years.
In the second half of the year, in the face of many pressures, China's textile and apparel exports also have development opportunities. "The gradual implementation and effectiveness of the domestic package of policies to stabilize economic growth will inject more positive energy into the entire industrial chain and export trade. In addition, under the influence of the epidemic and inflation, the US and European markets need more stable supply and higher quality in the second half of the year. Consumer goods with good prices in the United States. Although buyers in the United States and Europe will restart orders to diversify, in the short and medium term, 'China + Vietnam + others' will still be the mainstream mode of purchasing textile and apparel products in the United States."
